Petrochemicals – of which plastics are the dominant output – now account for roughly 75% of net global oil-demand growth, and are projected to become the largest driver of future oil demand. Plastic production has already doubled in the past two decades. Major oil companies are responding accordingly. Recent consolidation – including a $60bn merger creating one of the world’s largest plastics producers – reflects a deliberate pivot toward petrochemical assets as a long-term demand anchor.
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Pain points incoming? “There is plenty of runway before the [U.S.] economy begins to hit pain points that result in a change in household and business consumption, investment, and hiring. Those pain points will not kick in until oil hits approximately $125 a barrel,” according to RSM analyst Joe Brusuelas. At that point, it would become a drag on GDP growth and boost inflation with “downside risks to growth, inflation, unemployment, and the continuation of the business cycle.”