Last Saturday, a Polymarket trader made more than half a million dollars last Saturday by betting at the last minute on the date of the Iran offensive. And yet this person remains anonymous, with Polymarket refusing to ban trading related to these kinds of conflicts or the killing of world leaders, and with no plans to ban using inside information to profit off either.
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Nature, Published online: 04 March 2026; doi:10.1038/s41586-026-10167-6
Part 5: Benchmarking Quake